Upstream intelligence

Research

How decision markets reach a verdict, what an attack on one costs, and where every figure on this site comes from — in reading order.

Research posts

Deep research

Who pays for answers in decision markets?

12 August 2026 · 13 min read

Decision, conditional, and impact markets are one design space with one binding constraint. The theory priced that constraint in 2003. The live venues differ only in who pays the bill.
Thesis

The obstacle is not whether the market works

16 August 2026 · 5 min read

At MetaDAO’s July meeting Robin Hanson said the hard problem is adoption, not accuracy. An advisor that cannot read the room is not allowed at the table.
Outlook

Decision markets found demand. Now they need depth

14 August 2026 · 6 min read

Stop asking when decision markets get a Polymarket-shaped day. Demand already showed up as a capital-formation covenant. The remaining product is standing depth, not a 48-hour clock.
Market

The ownership-coin market fits in a group chat

13 August 2026 · 5 min read

In July 2026 the entire ecosystem resolved one proposal on $5.86K of decision-market volume, while the venue underneath it grew revenue 93% month over month. Both numbers are real.
Mechanism

How a decision market reaches its 72-hour verdict

13 August 2026 · 5 min read

Two conditional markets, one clock, and a threshold. What the price is actually being asked, and why the direction of a trade tells you almost nothing.
Method

How to read a DAO treasury before judging a proposal

13 August 2026 · 4 min read

NAV, adjusted supply, runway as a range, and why a buyback's size only means something as a share of what was left. The balance sheet every ask is drawn against.
Ecosystem

The missing infrastructure stack for decision markets

16 August 2026 · 5 min read

Decision markets have a working core and a missing everything-else. Standing checks compiled from research, an event indexer as the keystone, alerts that carry their evidence, and APIs with honest uncertainty — the infrastructure this ecosystem still owes itself.
Provenance

Where Chromatic's decision-market numbers come from

13 August 2026 · 5 min read

Two independent data lineages, one rule about missing evidence, and the full list of primary sources. What this desk will and will not assert.