Upstream intelligence

Blog

How decision markets reach a verdict, what an attack on one costs, and where every figure on this site comes from — in reading order.

Deep research

Who pays for answers in decision markets?

13 August 2026 · 14 min read

Decision, conditional, and impact markets are one design space with one binding constraint. The theory priced that constraint in 2003. The live venues differ only in who pays the bill.
Thesis

The obstacle is not whether the market works

14 August 2026 · 6 min read

At MetaDAO’s July meeting Robin Hanson said the hard problem is adoption, not accuracy. An advisor that cannot read the room is not allowed at the table.
Outlook

Decision markets found demand. Now they need depth

15 August 2026 · 10 min read

Stop asking when decision markets get a Polymarket-shaped day. The whole market fits in a group chat, yet demand already showed up — as a capital-formation covenant. The remaining product is standing depth, not a 48-hour clock.
Method

How to read a decision market

16 August 2026 · 11 min read

Two conditional markets on one clock produce a verdict; a balance sheet decides what that verdict is worth. The machine and the treasury it draws against are one reading, and neither half means much without the other.
Ecosystem

The missing infrastructure stack for decision markets

17 August 2026 · 7 min read

Decision markets have a working core and a missing everything-else. Standing checks compiled from research, an event indexer as the keystone, alerts that carry their evidence, and APIs with honest uncertainty — the infrastructure this ecosystem still owes itself.
Provenance

Where Chromatic's decision market numbers come from

18 August 2026 · 6 min read

Two independent data lineages, one rule about missing evidence, and the full list of primary sources. What this desk will and will not assert.
Agents

The next launchpad has no token

22 August 2026 · 16 min read

The DeFAI launchpads sold agent tokens to audiences and died with the attention they monetised. The agents that survived get paid for being right — and the thin conditional books that decide treasuries are shaped for exactly that trade, once someone builds the layer between a wallet and a view.
Threat model

The market cannot price a proposal it was never given

24 August 2026 · 7 min read

Five ways proposal design can break the link between a conditional price and the decision it appears to judge — and why each remains a threat model, not a verdict on futarchy.