{ "reviewedAt": "2026-09-10", "inputCutoff": "2026-09-09", "inputSha256": "a95a85aec4b1f369ca9e68e17bd4eae159b244c4b572d6b734bb81dee2e22d01", "simulatorSha256": "e228d4b0723064a9420b3cfe39c8a838de383b419050aefdb467a1150d36d506", "evaluatorSha256": "a3d797ddb3b91f2527b3773bc1f387ae26948f4e9e8ebcb58061c1a61b50fe58", "method": "Every eligible weekly origin; train on its prefix only; compare model median with last observed value using mean absolute error in USD billions. Four-week blocks, 5,000 paths, fixed seed. No parameter search.", "limitations": [ "Historical replay using a September 2026 snapshot, not archived as-of vintages.", "Overlapping outcomes are dependent; counts are not independent sample sizes.", "No decade horizon is tested. The 104-week default has no evaluable origins.", "The 80% interval coverage is descriptive, not calibration evidence. Interval score penalizes both width and misses.", "No forecast of decision-market adoption or returns follows from stablecoin results." ], "results": [ { "options": { "lookback": 52, "horizonWeeks": 1, "regime": "flat", "block": 4, "paths": 5000, "seed": 20260909 }, "n": 52, "summary": { "mae": 1.5802990220017021, "baselineMae": 1.5117435939934614, "coverage": 0.8653846153846154, "intervalScore": 7.168526249095624 }, "rows": [ { "origin": "2025-09-10", "target": "2025-09-17", "actual": 289.103098543, "baseline": 284.971387102, "p10": 282.11801245904746, "p50": 284.5014649686333, "p90": 289.035602659155, "error": 4.601633574366701, "baselineError": 4.131711440999993, "covered": false, "intervalScore": 7.592549038557252 }, { "origin": "2025-09-17", "target": "2025-09-24", "actual": 293.110655644, "baseline": 289.103098543, "p10": 286.1650640887466, "p50": 288.70859374865233, "p90": 293.1818888058171, "error": 4.4020618953476855, "baselineError": 4.007557101000032, "covered": true, 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