{
  "status": "draft-unregistered",
  "registrations": [],
  "revisionsSha256": "d16f987ec8bca667acdacfda525810dff60412c7725678adf629ff11ee6b8986",
  "probabilityBasis": "Initial subjective research judgments, not fitted or calibrated probabilities. The cited sources do not supply these probabilities.",
  "scoring": "Score each exact released revision with (probability - binary outcome)^2, lower better; 0.25 is the 50% neutral reference, not an estimated base rate. Show unresolved and resolved counts separately. Never select only correct forecasts. Do not combine these different targets into a thesis success score.",
  "revisions": [
    {
      "id": "metadao-reported-company-count-2027",
      "revision": 1,
      "proposedAt": "2026-09-10",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-10",
      "layer": "Financing adoption",
      "question": "Will MetaDAO’s last captured founders-page tally in the final week of 2027 report at least 30 companies that have raised?",
      "probability": 0.65,
      "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2028-01-31",
      "rationale": "Initial research judgment: moderately more likely than not. The founder page currently reports 22 companies. Eight more over roughly sixteen months is plausible, but this review has not established a launch rate, survival rate or historical forecast base rate. The probability is an explicit starting judgment, not a fitted estimate.",
      "resolution": "Use the last archived or contemporaneously saved copy of the official founders page dated December 25–31, 2027 UTC. Resolve yes when its explicit cumulative count of companies that have raised is at least 30, no when a comparable explicit count is below 30. Read the claim as reported by the platform; do not substitute a token roster, successful survivors or proposal count. Evidence must be obtained by January 31, 2028.",
      "missingEvidence": "No qualifying capture, removed count, ambiguous scope or changed definition means unresolved; absence of a number is never zero.",
      "limitation": "Tests a platform-reported financing claim. It does not establish recurring governance, company survival, capital efficiency or independent verification of the count.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "MetaDAO founder letter, retrieved September 10, 2026",
          "url": "https://metadao.fi/founders",
          "observed": "Page dated August 12 now reports 22 companies and $45M+ raised. The September 9 research artifact retained 21; the publication date does not date the current count."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "uniswap-repeat-cfm-2027",
      "revision": 1,
      "proposedAt": "2026-09-10",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-10",
      "layer": "Repeated allocation",
      "question": "Will the Uniswap Foundation document at least two additional CFM grant-allocation rounds completed after September 10, 2026 and by the end of 2027?",
      "probability": 0.4,
      "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2028-03-31",
      "rationale": "Initial research judgment: plausible but less likely than not under this strict documentation test. The 2025 pilot established one allocation and stated an intention to continue. Insider influence and forecasting complexity remain obstacles. An intention is not a delivery schedule or a measured continuation rate.",
      "resolution": "Audit all posts in the official Uniswap Foundation blog dated through March 31, 2028, including their linked primary grant records. Count distinct rounds only when the Foundation funded them, an announced conditional-market comparison selected a grant recipient, and a primary record states the grant was awarded after September 10, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2027. Different recipients in one round count once. Exclude ordinary grants, advisory-only markets, the July 2025 pilot, announcements without awards and rounds funded solely by other organizations. Resolve yes at two qualifying rounds; resolve no below two only after recording a complete archive/index audit.",
      "missingEvidence": "An inaccessible or incomplete blog archive, conflicting award dates or an unreviewed index means unresolved. This target measures public documentation in a named corpus, not all private activity.",
      "limitation": "Repeat use is a necessary test of this particular adoption path, not proof that CFMs outperform committees or that AI caused adoption.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Uniswap Foundation CFM retrospective",
          "url": "https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/blog/unichain-cfm-pilot-case-study",
          "observed": "The Foundation describes a July 2025 grant allocation, participation and design difficulties, and plans further experiments. Retrieved September 10, 2026."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "iea-datacentre-demand-2030",
      "revision": 1,
      "proposedAt": "2026-09-10",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-10",
      "layer": "Physical buildout",
      "question": "Will the IEA estimate global data-centre electricity consumption in calendar 2030 at 950 TWh or more?",
      "probability": 0.5,
      "eventDeadline": "2030-12-31",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2032-12-31",
      "rationale": "Initial neutral judgment around the IEA’s current central projection. The IEA is not assigning a 50% probability: this report does so as a transparent starting forecast. Bottlenecks could constrain growth; demand and capacity expansion could exceed expectations. No error distribution has been estimated, so this is not a calibrated percentile.",
      "resolution": "Use the latest IEA publication released by December 31, 2032 that explicitly gives a retrospective estimate for global data-centre electricity consumed during calendar 2030. Include AI and non-AI data centres, using TWh per year. An explicit point estimate of at least 950 resolves yes; a lower point estimate resolves no. A published range wholly above or below the threshold can resolve; a straddling range cannot. Do not use an earlier forecast, installed power capacity, AI-only electricity or a global-total electricity figure. Freeze this evidence vintage for the original score even if later estimates change.",
      "missingEvidence": "No comparable retrospective IEA estimate by the resolution deadline means unresolved. A source forecast is not an observed outcome.",
      "limitation": "Tests physical electricity demand, including non-AI computing. It cannot resolve claims about investment returns, intelligence, decision-market use or demand for investing tools.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI, April 2026",
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary",
          "observed": "Reports 485 TWh for 2025 and projects 950 TWh in 2030; describes financing and supply constraints. Retrieved September 10, 2026."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolutions": []
}